2008 Election Polls

Today I read some very interesting polls about the upcoming 2008 presidential election and possible candidates. These Diageo/Hotline polls, conducted by Financial Dynamics, give some very interesting scenarios for the future primary and presidential elections.

These polls first took all the possible challengers for the Republican and Democratic nominations and asked who the respondent would be most likely to vote for during primary season. Later, probable winners of each party’s nomination were pitted against each other for another survey.

For registered Democrats in the survey, they were asked, “If the 2008 Democratic presidential primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates were [see list below]?” If the respondent said all of the candidates, the follow up question was, “If you absolutely had to choose, which one person would you support?”

Hillary Clinton (Senator from New York)-38%
John Kerry (Senator from Massachusetts)-14%
John Edwards (former Senator from North Carolina)-13%
Joe Biden (Senator from Delaware)-5%
Wesley Clark (retired 4-star Army General)-3%
Russ Feingold (Senator from Wisconsin)-3%
Bill Richardson (Governor of New Mexico)-2%
Mark Warner (former Governor from Virginia)-2%
Evan Bayh (Senator from Indiana)-1%
Tom Vilsack (Governor of Iowa)-0%
All of these-1%
None of these-5%
Unsure-12%

The follow-up question was, “Now, suppose the 2008 Democratic presidential primary were being held today between Hillary Clinton and [see names below], for whom would you vote?”

Hillary Clinton-57%, John Kerry-30%, Unsure-11%, Refused to Answer-3%

Hillary Clinton-52%, John Edwards-33%, Unsure-12%, Refused to Answer-3%

Hillary Clinton-66%, Mark Warner-15%, Unsure-17%, Refused to Answer-3%

Hillary Clinton-57%, Al Gore-29%, Unsure-12%, Refused to Answer-2%

Registered Republicans were asked the same question, but with possible Republican nominees. Here are the results of that poll.

John McCain (Senator from Arizona)-25%
Rudy Giuliani (former Mayor of New York City)-23%
Newt Gingrich (former Representative from Georgia)-7%
Bill Frist (Senator from Tennessee)-5%
Mitt Romney (Governor from Massachusetts)-4%
George Allen (Senator from Virginia)-3%
George Pataki (Governor from New York)-2%
Chuck Hagel (Senator from Nebraska)-1%
Tom Tancredo (Representative from Colorado)-1%
None of these-4%
Wouldn’t Vote-1%
Unsure-22%

The follow up question was, “Now suppose the 2008 Republican presidential primary were being held today between John McCain and Rudy Giuliani, for whom would you vote?” The results were:

Rudy Giuliani-42%, John McCain-40%, Unsure-14%, Refused to Answer-3%

Finally, when polls respondents were asked “Thinking ahead to 2008: If the next election for president were held today, and John McCain were the Republican candidate and Hillary Clinton were the Democratic candidate, for whom would you vote?” The results were:

John McCain-46%, Hillary Clinton-37%, Depends-3%, Neither-8%, Unsure-6%

Very interesting indeed.